Market prices an 89.9% chance of “Will Trump announce a new tariff/immigration policy by end of September 2026?”” — little changed over 24 hours

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if, between July 10, 2026, and September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time (ET), President Donald J. Trump or the White House officially announces a new policy, executive action, presidential memorandum, proclamation, or legislative proposal concerning U.S. tariffs or immigration. Otherwise, this market resolves to NO. Definition of "New": The announcement must introduce a policy, tariff rate, target category, border enforcement directive, or visa rule that is distinct from policies officially active or announced prior to July 10, 2026. Expanding, replacing, or substantively modifying an existing program counts as a new policy; merely executing or re-stating an established schedule from a prior order does not. Definition of "Announce": The policy must be officially communicated directly by President Trump (e.g., via his official Truth Social account, a live public address, or an official press conference) or formally issued via the White House Briefing Room or the Federal Register. Qualifying Topics: Tariffs: Any new import taxes, surcharges, reciprocal tariffs, or modifications to existing tariff rates. Immigration: Any new executive rules regarding border control, mass deportations, asylum, temporary/permanent visas, or airport customs operations. Source of Truth: Official statements from the White House, signed Executive Orders or Proclamations on FederalRegister.gov, or reporting from major reputable news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Bloomberg, AP News) confirming the announcement. Background President Donald Trump's second term has been characterized by active executive intervention on trade and border security. Following a February 2026 Supreme Court ruling that invalidated previous emergency tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), the administration implemented a temporary 10% global import surcharge under separate authorities. On the immigration front, the administration has pursued aggressive enforcement, including targeted visa holds, expanded deportations, and proposed adjustments to the Department of Labor's PERM certification standards. This market monitors whether the administration will roll out additional core policy shifts or legal workarounds on these two signature platforms before the end of Q3 2026.