Will Theo Jaffee have a girlfriend by EOY2027?
Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
Insufficient dataThis venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if at any point prior to or on December 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM PT, Theo Jaffee publicly confirms, announces, or explicitly refers to having a girlfriend, romantic partner, or significant other. Acceptable sources of confirmation include: A post or reply from his official X account (@theojaffee) An announcement or explicit reference on his Substack (theojaffee.com) or his…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if at any point prior to or on December 31, 2028, at 11:59 PM PT, Theo Jaffee publicly confirms, announces, or explicitly refers to having a girlfriend, romantic partner, or significant other. Acceptable sources of confirmation include: A post or reply from his official X account (@theojaffee) An announcement or explicit reference on his Substack (theojaffee.com) or his podcast Direct confirmation by Theo Jaffee in the comments section of this market or via another reliable prediction market platform. This market resolves to NO if no such confirmation has occurred by the deadline. Note: Standard romantic relationship definitions apply. Obvious joke or satirical statements will not count toward a YES resolution, as determined by the market creator using common-sense interpretation. If ambiguity arises, the creator may edit the criteria or resolve the market based on Theo's direct clarification. Background Theo Jaffee is a writer, podcaster (Theo Jaffee Podcast), and a Research Partner on the New Media team at Andreessen Horowitz (a16z). He is an active participant and commentator in the tech, artificial intelligence, and prediction market communities, frequently sharing long-form thoughts on his Substack and daily updates on X. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2027 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 29, 9:32 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±26 pts.
What's happening
The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.