Will the party with the most seats supply the prime minister after the 2026 NZ Election?
Data is not live — latest snapshot Aug 14, 7:49 PM ET
Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
Insufficient dataThis venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
What this market actually measures
resolves yes if the party that wins the most seats supplies the prime minister after the 2026 nz election. If tie for most seats, resolves YES if one of them supplies the prime minister.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
resolves yes if the party that wins the most seats supplies the prime minister after the 2026 nz election. If tie for most seats, resolves YES if one of them supplies the prime minister. If a PM cant be decided after the 2026 Nov 7 election, and a new election is called, this will resolve based on the results from the second election (or whichever subsequent election is the final one before a PM is decided) (Identical market to: source market)
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 14, 9:24 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ0
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ0
- Category
- Politics
- Venue