Will the Fed cut rates by at least 25 bps at the Oct. 28, 2026 FOMC meeting?
As of Oct 6, 2026, 8:56 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 1.0% (little changed over 24 hours). It had Ṁ808.8 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ100 of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market resolves YES if the Federal Open Market Committee lowers the target range for the federal funds rate by at least 25 basis points in the statement issued for the October 28, 2026 FOMC meeting. Use the change announced in the first official FOMC statement or decision release tied to the October 27-28, 2026 meeting.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market resolves YES if the Federal Open Market Committee lowers the target range for the federal funds rate by at least 25 basis points in the statement issued for the October 28, 2026 FOMC meeting. Use the change announced in the first official FOMC statement or decision release tied to the October 27-28, 2026 meeting. YES if the target range is at least 25 basis points below the range in effect immediately before that meeting. NO if the target range is unchanged or is lowered by less than 25 basis points. Do not use the chair's press-conference wording, projections, minutes, market pricing, or later revisions. If the October 2026 FOMC meeting is postponed or canceled, resolve N/A unless a substitute official decision release for that meeting is issued. Creation context: {"latest_official_context": {"current_action": "maintained", "current_target_range": "3.50% to 3.75%", "fed_context": "The June 17, 2026 statement maintained the target range at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent.", "release": "Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement", "release_date": "2026-06-17"}, "metric": "Change in the target range for the federal funds rate announced at the meeting", "related_non_duplicates": ["Markets about inflation, employment, or other releases in October 2026 are not duplicates.", "Markets about a smaller 0-24 bp move, a later meeting, or an unchanged decision are not exact duplicates.", "Markets about the federal funds rate by year-end, target-range level, or the chair's commentary are not duplicates."], "release_schedule": "The Federal Reserve calendar lists the October 2026 FOMC meeting for Tuesday, October 27, and Wednesday, October 28, 2026.", "resolver_surface": "October 28, 2026 FOMC statement / rate decision", "source_fetch_caveat": "Official Federal Reserve pages were verified via web/search tooling before creation.", "threshold": "At least 25 basis points lower than the immediately prior target range"}. Sources / resolver surfaces: - Fed FOMC calendars: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm - Fed October 2026 calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/2026-october.htm - Fed June 17, 2026 FOMC statement: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260617a.htm - Fed H.15 selected interest rates: https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 28, 2026 at 2:25 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 6, 9:10 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±15 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ808.8
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ1.4K
- Category
- Macro / Fed
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 1.0%
- 7-day range
- 1.0% – 1.0%
- Resolves
- Oct 28, 2026