Will temperatures in Berlin, Germany, reach 40°C this summer?
The move lacks solid trading support — treat the new probability with caution.
The pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
WeakThe pricing has weak support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
FormingMovement has slowed (5.1 points over six hours) but the market has not fully settled.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market resolves YES if the Meteostat historical weather data for the Berlin / Dahlem weather station (Meteostat station ID: 10381, WMO: 10381) reports a daily maximum temperature of at least 40.0°C between 1 June 2026 and 31 August 2026 (inclusive). It resolves NO if no such daily maximum temperature is reported during that period.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market resolves YES if the Meteostat historical weather data for the Berlin / Dahlem weather station (Meteostat station ID: 10381, WMO: 10381) reports a daily maximum temperature of at least 40.0°C between 1 June 2026 and 31 August 2026 (inclusive). It resolves NO if no such daily maximum temperature is reported during that period. The Meteostat historical weather page for Berlin / Dahlem is the sole resolution source. If Meteostat is permanently unavailable at the time of resolution, the corresponding official DWD data for the Berlin-Dahlem station shall be used.
Why the odds moved
The probability fell 4.5 percentage points over the last 24 hours (23.5% → 19.0%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesAugust 31, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 9, 7:48 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±27 pts.
What's happening
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
Market data
24h volume