Will Romania have a new Government by the end of September?
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 23.0%.
- Final market price
- 23.0%
- Event deadline
- September 30, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Romania have a new Government by the end of September? The final Manifold price was 23.0%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 23.0%.
- Market data as of
- September 30, 2026 at 9:52 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- September 30, 2026 at 9:56 PM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- September 30, 2026 at 7:59 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 4m ago
What this market actually measures
Since May 5, 2026, Romania has had an interim government. The question resolves to YES only if a new government is confirmed by parliament before October 1st, 2026.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Since May 5, 2026, Romania has had an interim government. The question resolves to YES only if a new government is confirmed by parliament before October 1st, 2026.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ25
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ171.2
- Category
- Geopolitics
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 23.0%
- Resolves
- Sep 30, 2026