Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2026 PS–Place Publique presidential primary?
Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
Insufficient dataThis venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if Raphaël Glucksmann is declared the winner of the 2026 presidential primary organized by France's Parti Socialiste and Place Publique. Otherwise resolves NO.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if Raphaël Glucksmann is declared the winner of the 2026 presidential primary organized by France's Parti Socialiste and Place Publique. Otherwise resolves NO. Use the final official result, including any runoff. Withdrawal, disqualification, cancellation of the primary, or selection of another candidate resolves NO. Primary sources: Parti Socialiste and Place Publique. The market closes before first-round voting begins. Related markets Will Canada delay or cancel its September 8 retaliatory tariffs? Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone at its September 2026 event? Will Chang'e-7 launch by August 31, 2027? Will the Nevada Hawk Fire exceed 20,000 acres before reaching 90% containment? Will the Netherlands appear on the initial Eurovision 2027 participant list? Will King Harald resume official duties by September 30, 2026? Will Brent crude settle at or above $100 on September 30, 2026? Will Alibaba close at or above HK$123 on September 30, 2026? Which Cincinnati finalist will go furthest at the 2026 US Open?
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesOctober 8, 2026 at 5:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 29, 6:09 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ0
Liquidity
Ṁ100