Market prices a 39.0% chance of “Will OpenAI or Google announce an release a reduction to image generation filters around nudity by EOY 2027” — little changed over 24 hours
Original Manifold title: “Will OpenAI or Google announce an release a reduction to image generation filters around nudity by EOY 2027?”
Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if, on or before December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM UTC, either OpenAI or Google officially announces and deploys a reduction in safety filters that allows the generation of human nudity or explicit NSFW imagery on their primary image-generation platforms. To qualify for a YES resolution: The relaxation of filters must be an official, intentional policy or model capability …
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if, on or before December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM UTC, either OpenAI or Google officially announces and deploys a reduction in safety filters that allows the generation of human nudity or explicit NSFW imagery on their primary image-generation platforms. To qualify for a YES resolution: The relaxation of filters must be an official, intentional policy or model capability update, rather than a temporary glitch, user exploit, or jailbreak. The feature must be formally released to at least a subset of users—such as through a public beta, a verified adult/age-gated setting, or an official developer API update that explicitly permits nudity previously restricted by default safety guidelines. The change must be officially announced by OpenAI or Google, or verified by major technology news publications (e.g., TechCrunch, The Verge, WIRED). If neither company officially announces and releases such a filter relaxation by the end of 2027, the market resolves to NO. Restrictions can still exist (e.g. no depictions of actual sexual activity, no photo-realistic NSFW images), as long as some kind of NSFW images with explicit nudity can be reliably generated without jailbreaks.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2027 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 7, 5:55 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±25 pts.
What's happening
The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.
Market data
24h volume