Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
30 mana
Total volume
32 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Olivia Rodrigo’s you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love win Album of the Year at the 2027 Grammys?
As of Oct 26, 2026, 1:39 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 37.2% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 30 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
37.2%
Little changed over 24 hours
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
StableHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
47%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
5
Trades
8
over 3 days
Largest order
5 mana
32 mana traded across these 8 trades (last 3 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$32 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if Olivia Rodrigo's studio album you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love wins Album of the Year at the 69th Annual Grammy Awards (the 2027 Grammys). This market will resolve to NO if another album wins the category, if you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love is not nominated, or if the ceremony takes place without the album receiving the award.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market will resolve to YES if Olivia Rodrigo's studio album you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love wins Album of the Year at the 69th Annual Grammy Awards (the 2027 Grammys). This market will resolve to NO if another album wins the category, if you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love is not nominated, or if the ceremony takes place without the album receiving the award. The primary source of resolution will be the official Recording Academy winners list published at grammy.com. Background you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love is Olivia Rodrigo’s third studio album, released on June 12, 2026, through Geffen Records. The album falls within the eligibility window for the 69th Annual Grammy Awards, scheduled for early 2027. Both of Rodrigo’s previous studio albums, SOUR (2021) and GUTS (2023), received nominations for Album of the Year at the 64th and 66th Grammy Awards, respectively. This description was generated by AI. Review and verify everything here yourself. You can edit, replace, or delete any part of this description, including the resolution criteria. You do not need to trust the AI output.
What could move this market next?
- The scheduled event takes placeDecember 31, 2026 at 10:59 AM ET
The contract resolves on the event's outcome.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 26, 1:40 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±17 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
low classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
16Low
Where the price path tends to go next509 observed
- Illiquid / quiet98%
- Choppy / mean-reverting1%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityHigh· half-life —
PredictabilityStable
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0
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