[ACX 2026] Will the S&P 500 close above 7,500 at the end of 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, 11:58 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 77.3% (little changed over 24 hours). It had Ṁ27.2 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ100 of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/41130) Resolves according to Metaculus resolution. Metaculus high-level description: This question will resolve as Yes if the value of the S&P 500 index is greater than 7,500 at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/41130) Resolves according to Metaculus resolution. Metaculus high-level description: This question will resolve as Yes if the value of the S&P 500 index is greater than 7,500 at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of 2026. (Identical market to: source market)
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 3, 12:00 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±16 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ27.2
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ273.9
- Category
- Uncategorized
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 77.3%
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2026