ProbCast.coOdds Reliability
ManifoldPlay moneyOtherLikely noiseUpdated 4m ago

Will the linked market have 100 traders before it resolves?

As of Oct 26, 2026, 2:53 AM ET, Manifold priced this market at 21.9% (down from 30.7% 24 hours earlier). It had 144 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 150 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as weak.

Market probability
21.9%
−8.8 percentage points
over 24 hours30.7% → 21.9%
Moving fastBig move, weak backing

Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price — but today's move came mostly from one account.

Price historyManifold

Source: Manifold price history

How credible was the move?

Methodology →

Move validity

Weak

Consensus stability

Forming

Contract clarity

High

Can you trust this price?

Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.

Market capacity

How hard is it to move this price?

Thin

Pool liquidity

150 mana

Bid-ask spread

n/a

automated market maker

24h volume

144 mana

Total volume

144 mana

Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.

Who's trading

Whose opinion is this price?

One account dominates
66%of the traded money came from the single largest account

Accounts

4

Trades

10

over 41 min

Largest order

40 mana

144 mana traded across these 10 trades (last 41 min).

One account did most of the recent trading — the price reflects that account's view more than a crowd's.

Recent trade activity$144 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

Why the odds moved

The probability fell 8.8 percentage points over the last 24 hours (30.7% → 21.9%).

No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesDecember 30, 2026 at 8:25 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 26, 2:57 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±30 pts.

Reacting to newsLegacy movement classifier: noisy

What's happening

high classifier confidence
Reacting to news

The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.

  • Probability moved 8.8 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
11Low
Where the price path tends to go next543 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet98%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting1%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityMedium· half-life <1h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility

Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Change (pts)1H0.06H-8.824H-8.87D-8.8

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