Market prices a 48.3% chance of “Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028” — little changed over 24 hours
Original Manifold title: “Will Nvidia be the most valuable public company in the world at the end of 2028?”
No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.
The pricing has weak support: thin trading volume.
What this market actually measures
resolves based on https://companiesmarketcap.com/ [link preview]
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
resolves based on https://companiesmarketcap.com/ [link preview]
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has weak support: thin trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 7, 11:07 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±22 pts.
What's happening
The price hasn't updated recently and volume is light, so it may not yet reflect the latest information. Treat the latest print as possibly lagging, not settled.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ10
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ36.3
- Category
- AI / Tech
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —