Market prices a 42.2% chance of “Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026” — down 1.8 points in 24 hours
Original Manifold title: “Will the ARC-AGI grand prize be claimed by end of 2026?”
A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
What this market actually measures
https://arcprize.org/leaderboard Achieve a performance of 85% or higher on the private set of Chollet's Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC), a challenging benchmark designed to test an AI's ability to solve abstract reasoning tasks with minimal prior knowledge. Even if the requirements for the grand prize change in 2025, this benchmark of >=85% performance will remain unchanged.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
https://arcprize.org/leaderboard Achieve a performance of 85% or higher on the private set of Chollet's Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC), a challenging benchmark designed to test an AI's ability to solve abstract reasoning tasks with minimal prior knowledge. Even if the requirements for the grand prize change in 2025, this benchmark of >=85% performance will remain unchanged. Learn more about the competition here: https://arcprize.org/competition. 2025 version https://manifold.markets/JacobPfau/will-the-arcagi-grand-prize-be-clai-srb6t2awj1 2024 version https://manifold.markets/JacobPfau/will-the-arcagi-grand-prize-be-clai (Identical market to: source market)
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2026 at 5:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 6, 7:08 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±25 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.