Will Kimi K3 cause widespread societal chaos?
As of Oct 5, 2026, 4:23 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 1.1% (down from 2.2% 24 hours earlier). It had Ṁ521.5 traded in the past 24 hours and Ṁ1K of order-book liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolves YES if Kimi K3 is a cause of something or some set of things one might reasonably describe, colloquially, as 'widespread societal chaos,' that would not have counterfactually happened otherwise. Resolves NO if Kimi K3 does not do this, and an open model has been released that scores at least 61 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, or a closed model releases widely that scores at least 67.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolves YES if Kimi K3 is a cause of something or some set of things one might reasonably describe, colloquially, as 'widespread societal chaos,' that would not have counterfactually happened otherwise. Resolves NO if Kimi K3 does not do this, and an open model has been released that scores at least 61 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index, or a closed model releases widely that scores at least 67. Resolves N/A if Kimi K3's weights are not released before 9/1/2026 and before another open model scores higher than it did on the AA Intelligence Index. If there is any doubt on the correct outcome of this market, I will ask a best-of-three judge panel of the top models available at that time from Anthropic, OpenAI and Google. Re: Theo Jaffee (@theojaffee) on X [link preview]
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2027 at 7:34 AM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 5, 4:27 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±16 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ521.5
Liquidity
Ṁ1K
Total volume
Ṁ26.5K
- Category
- AI / Tech
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 1.1%
- 7-day range
- 1.1% – 2.2%
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 2027