Market prices an 85.0% chance of “Will I (McPqndq) reach IGM on Codeforces before the 2026 ICPC World Finals.” — little changed over 24 hours
Original Manifold title: “Will I (McPqndq) reach IGM on Codeforces before the 2026 ICPC World Finals.”
Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
What this market actually measures
https://codeforces.com/profile/McPqndq Also of interest: https://fakerating.mattthenub.dev/profiles/McPqndq The 2026 ICPC World Finals currently expected to take place November 15-20 in Dubai. If the event is delayed, so is my deadline.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
https://codeforces.com/profile/McPqndq Also of interest: https://fakerating.mattthenub.dev/profiles/McPqndq The 2026 ICPC World Finals currently expected to take place November 15-20 in Dubai. If the event is delayed, so is my deadline. Note that if I reach 2600, then fall back below, this still counts as yes. I will only bet yes.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesNovember 15, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 7, 2:36 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ0
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ610.8
- Category
- Macro / Fed
- Venue
- Manifold