Will humans become extinct in 9999?
Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
Insufficient dataThis venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 9999, the human species (Homo sapiens) has become entirely extinct. It resolves to NO if there is at least one living, biological Homo sapiens in existence anywhere in the universe on that date.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 9999, the human species (Homo sapiens) has become entirely extinct. It resolves to NO if there is at least one living, biological Homo sapiens in existence anywhere in the universe on that date. Definition of Homo sapiens: Includes anatomically modern humans and their direct, biologically human descendants. Post-biological digital minds, synthetic AI, or highly genetically divergent, non-interbreedable successor species do not count as Homo sapiens. The Paradox Rule: In the event of actual human extinction, there will be no human traders, market creators, or operational servers to resolve this market to YES. This market is resolved under the theoretical assumption that an automated, decentralized, or post-human oracle system is capable of verifying the status of humanity on December 31, 9999. In practice, a YES bet is functionally un-payoutable to a human, while a NO bet can only yield a payout if the market infrastructure survives to the year 10,000. Early Resolution: If definitive, universally accepted proof of human extinction occurs at any point prior to December 31, 9999—and the hosting platform remains functional long enough to process the resolution—this market may resolve to YES early. Background The year 9999 lies approximately 8,000 years in the future. While some evolutionary biologists and paleontologists, such as Henry Gee, have argued that habitat degradation, declining genetic diversity, and "extinction debt" could lead to the demise of Homo sapiens within the next 10,000 years, others argue that technological acceleration, space colonization, and genetic modification will secure the species' long-term survival. This market serves as a classic exercise in decision theory and anthropic bias: betting on the extinction of one's own species presents an absolute payout asymmetry, as a winning YES bet cannot be collected by a deceased bettor on a defunct platform.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 9999 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 20, 9:38 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ0
Liquidity
Ṁ100
Total volume
Ṁ0
- Category
- AI / Tech
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 50.0%
- Resolves
- Dec 31, 9999