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ManifoldAI / TechUpdated 10m ago

Will humans become extinct in 9999?

Market probability
50.0%
Little changed over 24 hours
2912180 days until the event deadline
Deadline: December 31, 9999 at 6:59 PM ET

Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.

This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Insufficient data

This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

What this market actually measures

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 9999, the human species (Homo sapiens) has become entirely extinct. It resolves to NO if there is at least one living, biological Homo sapiens in existence anywhere in the universe on that date.

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if, by December 31, 9999, the human species (Homo sapiens) has become entirely extinct. It resolves to NO if there is at least one living, biological Homo sapiens in existence anywhere in the universe on that date. Definition of Homo sapiens: Includes anatomically modern humans and their direct, biologically human descendants. Post-biological digital minds, synthetic AI, or highly genetically divergent, non-interbreedable successor species do not count as Homo sapiens. The Paradox Rule: In the event of actual human extinction, there will be no human traders, market creators, or operational servers to resolve this market to YES. This market is resolved under the theoretical assumption that an automated, decentralized, or post-human oracle system is capable of verifying the status of humanity on December 31, 9999. In practice, a YES bet is functionally un-payoutable to a human, while a NO bet can only yield a payout if the market infrastructure survives to the year 10,000. Early Resolution: If definitive, universally accepted proof of human extinction occurs at any point prior to December 31, 9999—and the hosting platform remains functional long enough to process the resolution—this market may resolve to YES early. Background The year 9999 lies approximately 8,000 years in the future. While some evolutionary biologists and paleontologists, such as Henry Gee, have argued that habitat degradation, declining genetic diversity, and "extinction debt" could lead to the demise of Homo sapiens within the next 10,000 years, others argue that technological acceleration, space colonization, and genetic modification will secure the species' long-term survival. This market serves as a classic exercise in decision theory and anthropic bias: betting on the extinction of one's own species presents an absolute payout asymmetry, as a winning YES bet cannot be collected by a deceased bettor on a defunct platform.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 9999 at 6:59 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 20, 9:38 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±21 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

low classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

  • Thin book and/or wide spread.

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
13Low
Where the price path tends to go next702 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ0

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ0

Category
AI / Tech
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
Current probability
50.0%
Resolves
Dec 31, 9999
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0