ProbCastOdds Reliability
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ManifoldMacro / FedUpdated 10m ago

Will humans become extinct before 3000?

Market probability
10.0%
Little changed over 24 hours
355487 days until the event deadline
Deadline: December 31, 2999 at 6:00 AM ET

No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.

The pricing has partial support: thin trading volume.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Moderate

The pricing has partial support: thin trading volume.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$2 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesDecember 31, 2999 at 6:00 AM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 15, 1:48 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±20 pts.

Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

low classifier confidence
Thin market

Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.

  • Low liquidity score (38)

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
5Low
Where the price path tends to go next574 observed
  • Illiquid / quiet99%
  • Choppy / mean-reverting1%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~4w
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ2

Liquidity

Ṁ100

Total volume

Ṁ2

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Manifold
Open interest
—
Current probability
10.0%
7-day range
10.0% – 10.0%
Resolves
Dec 31, 2999
Change (pts)1H0.06H0.024H0.07D0.0