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The probability decreased by 11.2 percentage points over the last 24 hours. ProbCast reads this as thin-market noise rather than a genuine repricing.
Will Gov. Hochul sign New York's data center moratorium (S10642/A11560) into law by Dec 31, 2026? The current Manifold probability is 36.3%, down 11.2 percentage points over the last 24 hours. ProbCast classifies this as a Likely Noise with low confidence because trading volume and book liquidity are low, so small orders can move the price.
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±29 pts.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
This market resolves YES if Governor Kathy Hochul signs S10642 / A11560 (the Responsible Data Center Development Act) into law on or before December 31, 2026, such that a one-year pause on new state permits for large data centers (peak demand of 20 MW or more) is enacted. It resolves NO if she vetoes the bill, if the bill is not delivered or not acted upon by December 31, 2026 (a pocket veto under NY Constitution Art. IV §7), or if the bill becomes law without the moratorium provision intact.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward One big trader.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
LOW_LIQUIDITYThin marketLOW_TRUST_MOVEBig move, weak backingDepth of the order book and volume
Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.
Low resolution risk: clear source, threshold, and deadline leave little room for ambiguity.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.
Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
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