Market capacity
How hard is it to move this price?
Thin
Pool liquidity
100 mana
Bid-ask spread
n/a
automated market maker
24h volume
496.9 mana
Total volume
614.4 mana
Play money: depth is in mana, so it says nothing about real-money conviction.
Will Gov. Hochul sign New York's data center moratorium (S10642/A11560) into law by Dec 31, 2026?
As of Oct 11, 2026, 5:25 PM ET, Manifold priced this market at 34.9% (little changed over 24 hours). It had 496.9 mana traded in the past 24 hours and 100 mana of pool liquidity. probcast.co rates the support behind this price as moderate.
Market probability
34.9%
Little changed over 24 hours
Play-money market (mana, not dollars) — thin market where small orders can move the price, traded by a small group of accounts.
Price historyManifold
Source: Manifold price history
How credible was the move?
Methodology →Move validity
ModerateIs the move backed by real trading and depth?
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
UnsettledHas the market settled at the new probability?
The probability moved another 2.1 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
Contract clarity
HighWill the rules resolve without ambiguity?
The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
Can you trust this price?
Two different questions: how hard the price is to move, and whose trading set it.
Who's trading
Whose opinion is this price?
A few accounts
57%of the traded money came from the single largest account
Accounts
11
Trades
76
over 124 days
Largest order
157.6 mana
630.2 mana traded across these 76 trades (last 124 days).
A small group of accounts did most of the trading — neither one whale nor a broad crowd.
Recent trade activity$630.2 traded
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
This market resolves YES if Governor Kathy Hochul signs S10642 / A11560 (the Responsible Data Center Development Act) into law on or before December 31, 2026, such that a one-year pause on new state permits for large data centers (peak demand of 20 MW or more) is enacted. It resolves NO if she vetoes the bill, if the bill is not delivered or not acted upon by December 31, 2026 (a pocket veto under NY Constitution Art…
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
This market resolves YES if Governor Kathy Hochul signs S10642 / A11560 (the Responsible Data Center Development Act) into law on or before December 31, 2026, such that a one-year pause on new state permits for large data centers (peak demand of 20 MW or more) is enacted. It resolves NO if she vetoes the bill, if the bill is not delivered or not acted upon by December 31, 2026 (a pocket veto under NY Constitution Art. IV §7), or if the bill becomes law without the moratorium provision intact.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesDecember 30, 2026 at 6:59 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Oct 11, 5:29 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Probability by deadline
The same event, priced across deadline contracts on this venue.
- By Dec 30 (this market)34.9%
- By Dec 3133.9%
Extending the deadline from Dec 30 to Dec 31 removes about 1.0 percentage points of implied probability.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±25 pts.
Thin marketLegacy movement classifier: watch
What's happening
medium classifier confidence
Thin market
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
- Thin book and/or wide spread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
8Low
Where the price path tends to go next983 observed
- Illiquid / quiet99%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
DurabilityMedium· half-life ~18h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
496.9 mana
Liquidity
100 mana
Total volume
614.4 mana
- Category
- AI / Tech
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 34.9%
- 7-day range
- 34.5% – 37.0%
- Resolves
- Dec 30, 2026
Change (pts)1H-2.16H+0.424H+0.47D+0.4
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