@Primer will reach a streak of 2000
No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if the Manifold Markets user Primer (username: @Primer) reaches a current daily betting/prediction streak of 2,000 consecutive days on the platform. This market resolves to NO if @Primer's streak is broken and resets to 0 (or is permanently set to a lower number) before reaching 2,000.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution criteria This market resolves to YES if the Manifold Markets user Primer (username: @Primer) reaches a current daily betting/prediction streak of 2,000 consecutive days on the platform. This market resolves to NO if @Primer's streak is broken and resets to 0 (or is permanently set to a lower number) before reaching 2,000. Notes: The primary source of truth is @Primer's official profile statistics on Manifold Markets. Platform-provided streak freezes or forgiveness mechanisms do not constitute a streak break, provided the platform's UI continues to display the consecutive streak count as active and unbroken. If @Primer's account is permanently deleted, banned, or deactivated before reaching 2,000 days, the market will resolve to NO. If streaks are no longer displayed by the platform's UI, other means for determining the consecitive betting/prediction streak can be used.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesSeptember 7, 2028 at 6:00 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 9, 6:09 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±17 pts.
What's happening
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Market data
24h volume