How will I rate del Vilenkin 1993? (+free lottery)
No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.
The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
ModerateThe pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
StableThe probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.
What this market actually measures
Resolution This market will resolve to x%. Number x will be my personal rating of the following literature on a 0-100 scale after studying it in more detail.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Resolution This market will resolve to x%. Number x will be my personal rating of the following literature on a 0-100 scale after studying it in more detail. Vilenkin (1993) "Quantum Cosmology" Free Lottery After the market closes, I will generate a random number M among 1 to 100 using this algorithm. The Mth unique trader of this market wins 300 mana from the lottery prize pool, if such a trader exists. Otherwise, the lottery falls through till next time. For free play, make a trade with 1 mana and sell it. Your trade will be recorded and you will become a unique trader. Past winners @PaperBoy 100Ṁ @hogshedges 100Ṁ @Pancarre 300Ṁ @wolf 400Ṁ @Chumchulum 200Ṁ @KarlWang 4000Ṁ @WobertqUIQz 300Ṁ @2ndPairofBoots 300Ṁ @jbm 300Ṁ @AritificialJudgement 300Ṁ @Primer 300Ṁ @Brierbr 300Ṁ @DaleKirkwood 300Ṁ @WobertqUIQz 300Ṁ (second time winner) @Chimpy 300Ṁ @Chimpy 300Ṁ (second time winner) @dawxgBot 300Ṁ @Handmadefilms 300Ṁ
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesSeptember 20, 2026 at 11:25 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 20, 12:43 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±20 pts.
What's happening
Near resolution or with ambiguous wording, pricing is mechanically thin and can swing on tiny trades. Read end-of-life prices with extra caution.
- Resolves in 1 day(s) — end-of-life pricing is mechanically thin
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Choppy / mean-reverting87%
- Stable consensus5%
- Thin-liquidity spike4%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
Ṁ19
Liquidity
Ṁ10K
Total volume
Ṁ19
- Category
- Macro / Fed
- Venue
- Manifold
- Open interest
- —
- Current probability
- 49.9%
- 7-day range
- 49.9% – 50.0%
- Resolves
- Sep 20, 2026