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Home/Macro / Fed/Free Lottery (pre-big bang)
ManifoldMacro / FedUpdated 10m ago

Free Lottery (pre-big bang)

Market probability
50.3%
Little changed over 24 hours
Less than a day until the event deadline
Deadline: August 25, 2026 at 11:32 PM ET

No meaningful repricing — the probability is steady.

The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Moderate

The pricing has partial support: moderate trading volume.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

Medium

Moderate resolution risk, driven mainly by no resolution basis.

Recent trade activity$57 traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What could move this market next?

  • The market's deadline arrivesAugust 25, 2026 at 11:32 PM ET

    The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Aug 25, 1:18 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±20 pts.

Resolving soonLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Resolving soon

Near resolution or with ambiguous wording, pricing is mechanically thin and can swing on tiny trades. Read end-of-life prices with extra caution.

Market data

24h volume

Ṁ57

Liquidity

Ṁ10K

Total volume

Ṁ57

Category
Macro / Fed
Venue
Manifold
Change (pts)1H0.06H+0.224H+0.27D+0.2
Score breakdown — Movement, Liquidity & Trust

ProbCast Trust Score

30/ 100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

ProbCast measures how reliable this market probability appears — not what to trade.

Movement4

Magnitude of recent probability change

Liquidity56

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ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCrypto
  • Resolves in 1 day(s) — end-of-life pricing is mechanically thin

Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
0Low
Where the price path tends to go next375 observed
  • Choppy / mean-reverting92%
  • Stable consensus4%
  • Trend continuation2%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~15h
PredictabilityStable

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Open interest
—
Current probability
50.3%
7-day range
50.0% – 50.3%
Resolves
Aug 25, 2026

Depth of the order book and volume

Trust breakdown

30/100 · Low

Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.

  • Liquidity anchor+41
  • Price steadiness+29
  • Thin liquidity-20
  • Expiring soon-10
  • Limited history-8
Trust score30 / 100
How these scores work →
View on Manifold

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

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