Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 5.00% following the Fed's Mar 17, 2027 meeting?
As of Sep 28, 2026, 10:46 AM ET, Kalshi priced this market at 12.0% (up from 2.5% 24 hours earlier). It had $5.6K traded in the past 24 hours and a bid-ask spread of 18.0 pts.
Too little market data to assess this move — treat the probability with caution.
This venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price. The probability moved another 34 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
How credible was the move?
Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →
Move validity
Is the move backed by real trading and depth?
Insufficient dataThis venue reports too little volume or book data for this market to judge the trading behind the price.
Consensus stability
Has the market settled at the new probability?
UnsettledThe probability moved another 34 points in the past hour — the market is still repricing.
Contract clarity
Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?
HighThe resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.
What this market actually measures
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 5.00% following the Federal Reserve's Mar 17, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 5.00% following the Federal Reserve's Mar 17, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Resolution source: If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's off…
Why the odds moved
The probability rose 9.5 percentage points over the last 24 hours (2.5% → 12.0%).
No verified catalyst has been linked to this move yet. ProbCast does not attribute moves to news without evidence connecting the timing of a specific report to the repricing.
What could move this market next?
- The market's deadline arrivesMarch 17, 2027 at 1:55 PM ET
The contract must resolve based on what has happened by this date.
Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 28, 10:49 AM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.
Advanced analysis (experimental)
Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±34 pts.
What's happening
The price is actively repricing on real volume. The number is still moving — don't treat the latest print as settled consensus yet.
- Probability moved 34.0 pts in ≤6h on adequate liquidity
Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
- Thin-liquidity spike72%
- Choppy / mean-reverting20%
- News repricing3%
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Market data
24h volume
$5.6K
Liquidity
$0
Total volume
$5.6K
- Category
- Macro / Fed
- Venue
- Kalshi
- Open interest
- $5.4K
- Spread
- 18.0 pts
- Best bid
- 3.0%
- Best ask
- 21.0%
- 7-day range
- 2.0% – 51.5%
- Resolves
- Mar 17, 2027
- Resolution
- If the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's off…