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Currently 30% YES, flat over 24h — ProbCast reads this as a watch-level move on mixed conditions (Trust 0/100).
Little 24h change — nothing confirmed to watch yet.
Thin book and/or wide spread. Small orders can move this price disproportionately, so any single print is noisy and easily overread.
Read with caution —Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.
Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.
A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.
Only Kalshi has this matched event in the current feed
MISSING_DATALimited dataLOW_LIQUIDITYThin marketWIDE_SPREADLoosely pricedIf the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published on the Federal Reserve's official website is greater than 4.25% following the Federal Reserve's Apr 28, 2027 meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Magnitude of recent probability change
Depth of the order book and volume
Weakly supported. Treat this number skeptically. Main caveat: thin liquidity.
Low resolution risk: clear source, threshold, and deadline leave little room for ambiguity.
How clear the contract wording is — separate from whether the price is trustworthy.
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.
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Secondary read: leaning toward Stale price.