Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August?98%11.3US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?91%8.0Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?16%9.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?14%4.0Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?20%5.8US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?89%9.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?65%0.5Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?90%4.0Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?21%0.6Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?45%2.0Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?78%18.0Will something happen this week in AI (by 5pm EST August 7)?78%25.4Will an LLM started by AI safety researchers successfully create and launch an Internet worm or virus by Sept 1, 2027?37%13.3Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?61%0.5Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?11%9.0Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31?57%1.5

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Ethereum price at Aug 5, 2026 at 3pm EDT — 3.0% probability | ProbCast