Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?40%▼6.0Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in September?22%▼8.5Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?36%▼18.5Will Ethereum dip to $2,600 in September?60%▼20.0Will Bitcoin dip to $82,500 in September?60%▼15.02026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House28%▲2.0U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by September 30?97%▲14.3Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September?15%▼6.3Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 25?94%▲8.3US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?59%▼5.0Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?44%▲30.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?34%▲1.0Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?11%▼23.0Will AI revenues be greater than $500 billion by end of 2027?76%▲26.0Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?67%▲0.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?23%▲2.0

Event · resolves around 2028-01-01

Variational FDV — price targets · Jan 2028

3 related contracts across Polymarket · $178K traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.

Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?Polymarket67%0.0 pts72Confirmed move
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?Polymarket78%-3.0 pts38Developing
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?Polymarket38%+1.7 pts41Developing

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