ProbCastOdds Reliability
LAPTOP FDV above $500M one day after launch?58%▲29.5LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?87%▲34.5Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,000?0%▼24.4LAPTOP FDV above $1B one day after launch?24%▲10.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?59%▲17.0LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?96%▲11.0Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?23%▼16.0Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?19%▲10.0Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?48%▲3.0Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?79%▼6.5LAPTOP FDV above $50M one day after launch?99%▲4.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?59%▲5.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?19%▼5.5Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?47%▲2.1Will the 46% improvement to the nanogpt speedrun be accepted?76%▲31.0All Millennium Prize Problems solved before 2030?25%▲6.0

Event · resolves around 2026-09-10

Bitcoin — price targets · Sep 2026

2 related contracts across Polymarket and Manifold · $86.6K traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 10?Polymarket95%-1.3 pts53Developing
Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $83 on September 10, 2026?Manifold99%+1.6 pts39Developing

Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.