ProbCastOdds Reliability
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?76%▲6.0Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 5 to September 7, 2026?56%▼16.0Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September?49%▼6.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 7?97%▲5.1Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?11%▼9.1Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in September?79%▲4.5Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?85%▼1.0Will Opportunity party get 9.000% or more of the party vote in the 2026 NZ general election?13%▼27.7Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?26%▼1.0Will real US GDP per capita grow by at least 15% within a single year by the end of 2033?25%▼1.9Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?17%▲2.0Will Democrats win Ohio and lose Iowa in the 2026 US senate elections?31%▼5.3Anthropic Reports “Major Scientific Discovery” before IPO?68%▲18.0Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?6%▼3.0Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026?74%▼1.5Will my brother start reading Harry Potter in the next week?5%▲4.2

Event · resolves around 2026-09-07

Bitcoin — price targets · Sep 2026

4 related contracts across Polymarket · $221.7K traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 7?Polymarket97%+5.1 pts34Likely noise
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on September 7?Polymarket100%+0.5 pts42Developing
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 7?Polymarket1%+0.3 pts40Developing
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 7?Polymarket100%0.0 pts46Developing

Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.