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Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?100%▲13.6Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19?14%▼28.0Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?1%▼14.7Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 19?86%▲10.0Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?0%▼10.9Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?96%▲72.8Will something happen in AI the week of Aug 21, 2026?76%▲17.2Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?52%▲7.8Apakah aptos akan naik 75% September25%▼57.9Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?35%▼1.5US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?7%▼4.0Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?53%▼6.0US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?12%▼6.02026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House48%▲2.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?7%▼2.0Will there be a new White House press secretary by the end of August?40%▲1.2
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?100%▲13.6Bitcoin Up or Down on August 19?14%▼28.0Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?1%▼14.7Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 19?86%▲10.0Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?0%▼10.9Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?96%▲72.8Will something happen in AI the week of Aug 21, 2026?76%▲17.2Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?52%▲7.8Apakah aptos akan naik 75% September25%▼57.9Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?35%▼1.5US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?7%▼4.0Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?53%▼6.0US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?12%▼6.02026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House48%▲2.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?7%▼2.0Will there be a new White House press secretary by the end of August?40%▲1.2

Event · resolves around 2026-08-20

Bitcoin — price targets · Aug 2026

2 related contracts across Polymarket and Manifold · $81.5K traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on August 20?PolymarketCrypto100%-0.1 pts$81.5K7967Developing
Will the WTI Crude Oil Spot Price be above $82 on August 20, 2026?ManifoldMacro / Fed94%+8.2 ptsṀ1.6K6227Developing

Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.

ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

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