ProbCastOdds Reliability
TodayTop MoversMarketsWhat ChangedAccuracyWatchlist
⌘K
Checking…
Hot Markets
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 17?37%▼16.0Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?19%▲16.0US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?4%▼11.2Will Rodri join Barcelona?99%▲19.5Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?34%▲15.4Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?11%▼3.0Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 August 10-16?2%▼0.6Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?90%▲5.2US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?16%▼5.0Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?43%▲9.0Will OpenAI make Astra publicly available by October 15, 2026?30%▼46.0Will Anthropic somehow patch the Opus 5 base-model-like behavior from "---" prompts (or pull the model) by September 1?32%▼7.5Will an Open Weights Model be #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in 202622%▼28.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?3%▼2.7Will YES have more holders than NO?75%▲15.870%+ regular wearable use by EOY 2031?23%▼27.3
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 17?37%▼16.0Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?19%▲16.0US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?4%▼11.2Will Rodri join Barcelona?99%▲19.5Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?34%▲15.4Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?11%▼3.0Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 August 10-16?2%▼0.6Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?90%▲5.2US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?16%▼5.0Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?43%▲9.0Will OpenAI make Astra publicly available by October 15, 2026?30%▼46.0Will Anthropic somehow patch the Opus 5 base-model-like behavior from "---" prompts (or pull the model) by September 1?32%▼7.5Will an Open Weights Model be #1 on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index in 202622%▼28.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?3%▼2.7Will YES have more holders than NO?75%▲15.870%+ regular wearable use by EOY 2031?23%▼27.3

Event · resolves around 2026-08-17

Bitcoin — price targets · Aug 2026

4 related contracts across Polymarket · $254.2K traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on August 17?PolymarketCrypto90%+0.5 pts$79.1K7841Developing
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 17?PolymarketCrypto0%0.0 pts$59.6K7967Developing
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on August 17?PolymarketCrypto100%0.0 pts$58K7967Developing
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 17?PolymarketCrypto6%0.0 pts$57.5K7665Developing

Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.

ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCryptoMacro / FedPoliticsAI / TechGeopolitics

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

© 2026 ProbCast · [email protected]