ProbCastOdds Reliability
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Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?27%▲6.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?56%▲12.5Bitcoin Up or Down on August 10?4%▼50.1Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August?100%▲23.0Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?38%▲2.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?39%▼10.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?47%▼9.0US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?33%▼27.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?12%▼13.0Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?76%▲15.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?34%▲9.5Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 10?0%▼8.6Ethereum Up or Down on August 10?1%▼52.2Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?61%▼2.0Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?56%▲14.5US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?62%▼4.5
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?27%▲6.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?56%▲12.5Bitcoin Up or Down on August 10?4%▼50.1Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in August?100%▲23.0Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?38%▲2.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?39%▼10.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?47%▼9.0US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?33%▼27.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?12%▼13.0Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?76%▲15.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?34%▲9.5Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 10?0%▼8.6Ethereum Up or Down on August 10?1%▼52.2Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?61%▼2.0Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 8 to August 10, 2026?56%▲14.5US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?62%▼4.5

Event · resolves around 2026-08-14

Price targets · Aug 2026

2 related contracts across Manifold. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.

S&P 500 closes above $7,800 at end of week?ManifoldMacro / Fed41%-0.9 ptsṀ98.75121Developing
S&P 500 closes above $7,800 on August 14?ManifoldMacro / Fed40%-1.9 ptsṀ39.94811Developing

Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.

ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

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