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Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?63%▲14.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?53%▲0.0Bitcoin Up or Down on August 8?60%▲2.5Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?36%▼27.7Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?37%▼11.0Ethereum Up or Down on August 8?57%▲13.5Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?39%▲26.0Fed rate hike in 2026?55%▼8.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?12%▼2.0Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?75%▼1.4Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" earns more than $170M in domestic gross earnings during their second weekend?13%▼23.0Will SpaceX stock crash and close below $100 this year?47%▼34.7Will Opus 4.6 pay back its loan11%▼39.0US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?91%▲3.5If Opus 4.6 can pay back its loan, will it?6%▼65.2NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?24%▼2.0
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?63%▲14.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?53%▲0.0Bitcoin Up or Down on August 8?60%▲2.5Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?36%▼27.7Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?37%▼11.0Ethereum Up or Down on August 8?57%▲13.5Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026?39%▲26.0Fed rate hike in 2026?55%▼8.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?12%▼2.0Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?75%▼1.4Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" earns more than $170M in domestic gross earnings during their second weekend?13%▼23.0Will SpaceX stock crash and close below $100 this year?47%▼34.7Will Opus 4.6 pay back its loan11%▼39.0US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?91%▲3.5If Opus 4.6 can pay back its loan, will it?6%▼65.2NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?24%▼2.0

Event · resolves around 2026-08-09

Bitcoin — price targets · Aug 2026

2 related contracts across Polymarket · $153.5K traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 9?PolymarketCrypto94%+1.2 pts$87K7737Developing
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on August 9?PolymarketCrypto7%-1.3 pts$66.5K7732Developing

Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.

ProbCast — Odds Reliability

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