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US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?49%▲19.0 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?16%▼8.6 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?83%▲8.4 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?21%▼4.0 Will the perpetrator of the attack on CSD Berlin 2026 be caught within two weeks?89%▲70.2 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?88%▲8.0 Will Bryan Johnson dunk before EOY 2027?33%▼21.8 Will twitter / x.com be open source before September?19%▼20.6 Will Bryan Johnson dunk in 2026?24%▼8.9 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?99%▲5.2 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?16%▲3.0 Israel closes its airspace by July 31?8%▼4.0 Will there be in a runoff in the 2026 Greater Manchestor mayoral by-election?75%▲29.5 Bordeaux evacuated before middle of August?19%▼18.5 Will Stripe acquire Openrouter in 2026?61%▲11.4 Will Trump announce he is running for President in the 2028 election?23%▼26.7 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?49%▲19.0 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?16%▼8.6 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?83%▲8.4 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?21%▼4.0 Will the perpetrator of the attack on CSD Berlin 2026 be caught within two weeks?89%▲70.2 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?88%▲8.0 Will Bryan Johnson dunk before EOY 2027?33%▼21.8 Will twitter / x.com be open source before September?19%▼20.6 Will Bryan Johnson dunk in 2026?24%▼8.9 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?99%▲5.2 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?16%▲3.0 Israel closes its airspace by July 31?8%▼4.0 Will there be in a runoff in the 2026 Greater Manchestor mayoral by-election?75%▲29.5 Bordeaux evacuated before middle of August?19%▼18.5 Will Stripe acquire Openrouter in 2026?61%▲11.4 Will Trump announce he is running for President in the 2028 election?23%▼26.7

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US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?49%▲19.0 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?16%▼8.6 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?83%▲8.4 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?21%▼4.0 Will the perpetrator of the attack on CSD Berlin 2026 be caught within two weeks?89%▲70.2 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?88%▲8.0 Will Bryan Johnson dunk before EOY 2027?33%▼21.8 Will twitter / x.com be open source before September?19%▼20.6 Will Bryan Johnson dunk in 2026?24%▼8.9 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?99%▲5.2 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?16%▲3.0 Israel closes its airspace by July 31?8%▼4.0 Will there be in a runoff in the 2026 Greater Manchestor mayoral by-election?75%▲29.5 Bordeaux evacuated before middle of August?19%▼18.5 Will Stripe acquire Openrouter in 2026?61%▲11.4 Will Trump announce he is running for President in the 2028 election?23%▼26.7 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?49%▲19.0 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?16%▼8.6 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?83%▲8.4 Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?21%▼4.0 Will the perpetrator of the attack on CSD Berlin 2026 be caught within two weeks?89%▲70.2 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?88%▲8.0 Will Bryan Johnson dunk before EOY 2027?33%▼21.8 Will twitter / x.com be open source before September?19%▼20.6 Will Bryan Johnson dunk in 2026?24%▼8.9 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?99%▲5.2 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?16%▲3.0 Israel closes its airspace by July 31?8%▼4.0 Will there be in a runoff in the 2026 Greater Manchestor mayoral by-election?75%▲29.5 Bordeaux evacuated before middle of August?19%▼18.5 Will Stripe acquire Openrouter in 2026?61%▲11.4 Will Trump announce he is running for President in the 2028 election?23%▼26.7

Event · resolves around 2026-07-26

Bitcoin — price targets · Jul 2026

2 related contracts across Polymarket · $316.6K traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.


Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 26?	Polymarket	Crypto	100%	+16.5 pts	$177.6K	83	53	Worth watching
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on July 26?	Polymarket	Crypto	0%	-0.4 pts	$138.9K	81	76	Worth watching

Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.