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Event · resolves around 2027-12-31
2 related contracts across Manifold. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.
| Will Israel hold an election in 2027? | Manifold | 25% | -10.6 pts | 22 | Likely noise |
| Will Javier Milei be reelected for a second term as the President of Argentina? | Manifold | 67% | +2.3 pts | 11 | Likely noise |
Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.