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Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?13%▼30.5Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?15%▲12.8Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?54%▲11.7Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?31%▼23.0Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?4%▼7.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?56%▼3.0Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?26%▼46.3Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?73%▲45.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?28%▼2.0US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?13%▼6.0Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?18%▼15.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?31%▼7.0Bitcoin Up or Down on August 14?51%▲10.0Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?61%▲5.3Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?62%▼10.5Will something happen this week in AI (by 5pm EST August 14)?38%▼32.6
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?13%▼30.5Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?15%▲12.8Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?54%▲11.7Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?31%▼23.0Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?4%▼7.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?56%▼3.0Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?26%▼46.3Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 800m and 900m by August 31?73%▲45.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?28%▼2.0US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?13%▼6.0Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?18%▼15.0Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?31%▼7.0Bitcoin Up or Down on August 14?51%▲10.0Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?61%▲5.3Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in August?62%▼10.5Will something happen this week in AI (by 5pm EST August 14)?38%▼32.6

Event · resolves around 2027-06-30

Nigel Farage — election · Jun 2027

3 related contracts across Polymarket · $956.4K traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.

Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?PolymarketPolitics31%-23.0 pts$458.9K8530Likely noise
Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?PolymarketPolitics15%+12.8 pts$391.3K8250Developing
Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?PolymarketPolitics54%+11.7 pts$106.2K8150Developing

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