Event · resolves around 2027-06-30
Nigel Farage — election · Jun 2027
3 related contracts across Polymarket · $956.4K traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.
| Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? | Polymarket | 31% | -23.0 pts | 30 | Likely noise |
| Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? | Polymarket | 15% | +12.8 pts | 50 | Developing |
| Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election? | Polymarket | 54% | +11.7 pts | 50 | Developing |
Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.