ProbCastOdds Reliability
TodayTop MoversMarketsWhat ChangedAccuracyWatchlist
⌘K
Checking…
Hot Markets
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?31%▼16.2Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?44%▼2.3Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 6?100%▲5.4Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?71%▲3.0Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?6%▼31.7Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?50%▼3.0Bitcoin Up or Down on August 6?98%▲19.9Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?7%▼22.8Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?28%▲13.0Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?48%▼12.8Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on August 6?98%▲30.9Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?11%▲2.1Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?93%▲7.0Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?6%▲3.4Will Opus 4.6 pay back its loan?28%▲13.3Will something happen this week in AI (by 5pm EST August 7)?96%▲23.1
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?31%▼16.2Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?44%▼2.3Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on August 6?100%▲5.4Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?71%▲3.0Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?6%▼31.7Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?50%▼3.0Bitcoin Up or Down on August 6?98%▲19.9Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?7%▼22.8Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?28%▲13.0Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?48%▼12.8Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on August 6?98%▲30.9Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?11%▲2.1Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?93%▲7.0Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?6%▲3.4Will Opus 4.6 pay back its loan?28%▲13.3Will something happen this week in AI (by 5pm EST August 7)?96%▲23.1

Event · resolves around 2027-04-30

Fran — election · Apr 2027

2 related contracts across Polymarket · $262.6K traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.

Will François Baroin win the 2027 French presidential election?PolymarketGeopolitics0%0.0 pts$137.7K8590Developing
Will Yannick Jadot win the 2027 French presidential election?PolymarketGeopolitics0%0.0 pts$124.9K8187Developing

Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.

ProbCast — Odds Reliability

Know whether prediction-market odds can be trusted. ProbCast analyzes liquidity, market activity, spreads, and price movement to help distinguish meaningful repricing from thin-market noise.

Questions? Chat with us on Telegram
TodayTop MoversEventsAll MarketsWhat ChangedVenue DivergencePolymarket vs KalshiMethodologyCoverageMeta's ArenaWatchlistTerms of UsePrivacyCryptoMacro / FedPoliticsAI / TechGeopolitics

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice. ProbCast is not a betting platform, exchange, or broker and does not provide buy or sell recommendations. Intended for users 18+; availability of prediction-market activity varies by jurisdiction. Venue data is aggregated from third parties and may be delayed or inaccurate. See our Terms of Use.

Market-implied probabilities can be wrong, illiquid, manipulated, or affected by ambiguous resolution rules.

© 2026 ProbCast · [email protected]