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Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?20%▼71.2 Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?3%▼71.4 U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?66%▼24.8 Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?79%▲70.5 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?98%▲7.7 Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?0%▼13.4 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?26%▲4.0 Will Anthropic somehow patch the Opus 5 base-model-like behavior from "---" prompts (or pull the model) by September 1?65%▲19.7 Will Opus 5 Slay Spires better than Sol?37%▼20.9 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?8%▼1.0 Fed rate hike in 2026?67%▲5.0 Anthony Fauci deceased before January 1st 202816%▼34.1 Will I delete my Manifold account by October? (Again)78%▲28.1 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?1%▼5.7 Will I outperform the market by individually picking/trading stocks?60%▲10.7 Will a model saturate AISI's "The Last Ones" before October 2026?38%▼1.0

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?20%▼71.2 Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?3%▼71.4 U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?66%▼24.8 Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?79%▲70.5 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?98%▲7.7 Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?0%▼13.4 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?26%▲4.0 Will Anthropic somehow patch the Opus 5 base-model-like behavior from "---" prompts (or pull the model) by September 1?65%▲19.7 Will Opus 5 Slay Spires better than Sol?37%▼20.9 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?8%▼1.0 Fed rate hike in 2026?67%▲5.0 Anthony Fauci deceased before January 1st 202816%▼34.1 Will I delete my Manifold account by October? (Again)78%▲28.1 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?1%▼5.7 Will I outperform the market by individually picking/trading stocks?60%▲10.7 Will a model saturate AISI's "The Last Ones" before October 2026?38%▼1.0

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Hot Markets

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?20%▼71.2 Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?3%▼71.4 U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?66%▼24.8 Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?79%▲70.5 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?98%▲7.7 Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?0%▼13.4 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?26%▲4.0 Will Anthropic somehow patch the Opus 5 base-model-like behavior from "---" prompts (or pull the model) by September 1?65%▲19.7 Will Opus 5 Slay Spires better than Sol?37%▼20.9 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?8%▼1.0 Fed rate hike in 2026?67%▲5.0 Anthony Fauci deceased before January 1st 202816%▼34.1 Will I delete my Manifold account by October? (Again)78%▲28.1 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?1%▼5.7 Will I outperform the market by individually picking/trading stocks?60%▲10.7 Will a model saturate AISI's "The Last Ones" before October 2026?38%▼1.0

Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?20%▼71.2 Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?3%▼71.4 U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?66%▼24.8 Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?79%▲70.5 Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?98%▲7.7 Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?0%▼13.4 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?26%▲4.0 Will Anthropic somehow patch the Opus 5 base-model-like behavior from "---" prompts (or pull the model) by September 1?65%▲19.7 Will Opus 5 Slay Spires better than Sol?37%▼20.9 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?8%▼1.0 Fed rate hike in 2026?67%▲5.0 Anthony Fauci deceased before January 1st 202816%▼34.1 Will I delete my Manifold account by October? (Again)78%▲28.1 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?1%▼5.7 Will I outperform the market by individually picking/trading stocks?60%▲10.7 Will a model saturate AISI's "The Last Ones" before October 2026?38%▼1.0

Event · resolves around 2026-08-30

Rebecca Shepherd — election · Aug 2026

2 related contracts across Polymarket · $1.4M traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.


Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Polymarket	Politics	0%	0.0 pts	$1.1M	83	73	Developing
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Polymarket	Politics	100%	0.0 pts	$225K	74	67	Developing

Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.