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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?27%▲3.0 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?23%▼25.5 Fed rate hike in 2026?62%▼14.0 Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?90%▲13.7 Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?10%▼14.0 Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?3%▼6.1 U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?86%▲52.0 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?45%▲9.0 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?53%▼8.0 Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?7%▼3.0 Will Opus 5 Slay Spires better than Sol?58%▲6.7 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?22%▲7.6 Will Spiderman: Brand New Day beat Spiderman: No Way Home's opening weekend?53%▼1.3 Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their January 2027 meeting?70%▼25.0 Raul Castro in USA before end of 2026?10%▼13.5 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?9%▼3.0

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?27%▲3.0 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?23%▼25.5 Fed rate hike in 2026?62%▼14.0 Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?90%▲13.7 Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?10%▼14.0 Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?3%▼6.1 U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?86%▲52.0 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?45%▲9.0 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?53%▼8.0 Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?7%▼3.0 Will Opus 5 Slay Spires better than Sol?58%▲6.7 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?22%▲7.6 Will Spiderman: Brand New Day beat Spiderman: No Way Home's opening weekend?53%▼1.3 Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their January 2027 meeting?70%▼25.0 Raul Castro in USA before end of 2026?10%▼13.5 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?9%▼3.0

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Hot Markets

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?27%▲3.0 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?23%▼25.5 Fed rate hike in 2026?62%▼14.0 Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?90%▲13.7 Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?10%▼14.0 Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?3%▼6.1 U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?86%▲52.0 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?45%▲9.0 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?53%▼8.0 Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?7%▼3.0 Will Opus 5 Slay Spires better than Sol?58%▲6.7 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?22%▲7.6 Will Spiderman: Brand New Day beat Spiderman: No Way Home's opening weekend?53%▼1.3 Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their January 2027 meeting?70%▼25.0 Raul Castro in USA before end of 2026?10%▼13.5 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?9%▼3.0

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?27%▲3.0 US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?23%▼25.5 Fed rate hike in 2026?62%▼14.0 Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?90%▲13.7 Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?10%▼14.0 Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?3%▼6.1 U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?86%▲52.0 Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?45%▲9.0 Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?53%▼8.0 Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in July?7%▼3.0 Will Opus 5 Slay Spires better than Sol?58%▲6.7 Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?22%▲7.6 Will Spiderman: Brand New Day beat Spiderman: No Way Home's opening weekend?53%▼1.3 Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their January 2027 meeting?70%▼25.0 Raul Castro in USA before end of 2026?10%▼13.5 Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?9%▼3.0

Event · resolves around 2026-08-29

Rebecca Shepherd — election · Aug 2026

2 related contracts across Polymarket · $1.4M traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.


Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Polymarket	Politics	0%	0.0 pts	$1.1M	83	73	Developing
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	Polymarket	Politics	100%	0.0 pts	$225K	74	67	Developing

Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.