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US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?16%▼25.5US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?49%▼18.5Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?0%▼20.7US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?79%▼10.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?68%▼11.5Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?24%▼6.0Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?7%▼15.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?12%▼3.0US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?11%▼16.5US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?82%▼9.0Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?100%▲22.1Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?18%▲3.0Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?27%▲14.0Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?92%▼0.3Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?30%▲9.0Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?63%▲10.0
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?16%▼25.5US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?49%▼18.5Will Vinicius Junior join Arsenal?0%▼20.7US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?79%▼10.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?68%▼11.5Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?24%▼6.0Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?7%▼15.0Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?12%▼3.0US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?11%▼16.5US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?82%▼9.0Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?100%▲22.1Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?18%▲3.0Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?27%▲14.0Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?92%▼0.3Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?30%▲9.0Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?63%▲10.0

Event · resolves around 2026-08-18

Byron Donalds — election · Aug 2026

2 related contracts across Polymarket · $121.2K traded in 24h. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.

Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?PolymarketPolitics98%+0.5 pts$81.8K8274Developing
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?PolymarketPolitics1%-0.1 pts$39.4K8267Developing

Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.

ProbCast — Odds Reliability

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