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Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August?78%▼6.0Bitcoin Up or Down on August 18?52%▼12.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?73%▼7.0Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?25%▲19.8Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?35%▼9.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?12%▼3.0Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?69%▲26.0Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?60%▼20.2US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?54%▼9.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?34%▼7.0Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?32%▲11.0Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?73%▲5.5Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?14%▲5.5Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?1%▼4.0Will Bitcoin be higher 7 days from now?75%▲18.0Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?28%▲4.0
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in August?78%▼6.0Bitcoin Up or Down on August 18?52%▼12.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?73%▼7.0Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?25%▲19.8Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?35%▼9.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?12%▼3.0Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?69%▲26.0Will Bitcoin dip to $62,500 in August?60%▼20.2US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?54%▼9.0US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?34%▼7.0Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in August?32%▲11.0Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?73%▲5.5Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?14%▲5.5Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?1%▼4.0Will Bitcoin be higher 7 days from now?75%▲18.0Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?28%▲4.0

Event · resolves around 2027-12-31

Falcon — event · Dec 2027

2 related contracts across Manifold. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.

Will Falcon launch more times in 2027 than 2026?ManifoldMacro / Fed44%+4.1 ptsṀ94.45120Developing
Will Anthropic release custom chips for Claude by the end of 2027ManifoldAI / Tech33%-1.4 ptsṀ15.64435Developing

Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.

ProbCast — Odds Reliability

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