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Event · resolves around 2027-12-31
2 related contracts across Manifold. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.
| Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2027? | Manifold | 50% | 0.0 pts | 20 | Worth watching |
| Will the CCP block the release of an LLM from a Chinese lab prior to 2028 | Manifold | 40% | 0.0 pts | 20 | Worth watching |
Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.