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Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?65%▲8.4Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in August?59%▼6.5Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?39%▲6.5US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?72%▲5.0Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?10%▼9.3Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026?16%▼9.5Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?1%▼6.1Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?30%▲8.5Will LegalEagle become the U.S. Attorney General before 2030?5%▼41.5Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?70%▲6.5Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?15%▼7.5🇺🇸🇨🇳🇮🇷 Will the U.S. sanction a Chinese entity over ties to Iran by August 24, 2026?37%▲3.5US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?91%▲0.0Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?22%▼7.0Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in August?31%▼2.0In the 2028 presidential election will at least one state assign its electoral votes based on the national popular vote?15%▼34.5
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in August?65%▲8.4Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in August?59%▼6.5Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?39%▲6.5US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?72%▲5.0Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?10%▼9.3Will Ethereum dip to $1,750 by December 31, 2026?16%▼9.5Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?1%▼6.1Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31?30%▲8.5Will LegalEagle become the U.S. Attorney General before 2030?5%▼41.5Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?70%▲6.5Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in August?15%▼7.5🇺🇸🇨🇳🇮🇷 Will the U.S. sanction a Chinese entity over ties to Iran by August 24, 2026?37%▲3.5US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?91%▲0.0Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?22%▼7.0Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in August?31%▼2.0In the 2028 presidential election will at least one state assign its electoral votes based on the national popular vote?15%▼34.5

Event · resolves around 2027-07-31

FRONTIER AI Act — event · Jul 2027

2 related contracts across Manifold. Every row is scored for movement, liquidity, and trust — the fastest way to read one event’s whole probability surface.

Will the FRONTIER AI Act pass by July 2027?ManifoldAI / Tech14%-29.0 ptsṀ147460Likely noise
Will OpenAI release a fully autonomous AI agent product before July 2027?ManifoldAI / Tech80%+4.6 ptsṀ27.93813Developing

Markets are grouped by ProbCast’s contract ontology (event type, deadline, jurisdiction) — see the methodology. Contracts in a family can have different resolution criteria; read each market’s rules before comparing numbers.

ProbCast — Odds Reliability

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