ProbCastOdds Reliability

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Friday, October 2, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?

Moved up 6.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+6.012%Confirmed move
Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?

Moved down 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-5.025%Confirmed move
US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-3.012%Confirmed move
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Moved up 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+8.083%Confirmed move
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?

Moved down 6.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-6.036%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will Anthropic announce a $400+/month tier before November 2026?

Moved down 28.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

-28.020%Likely noise
Will CPI rise more than 0.5% in October 2026?

Moved up 15.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+15.018%Likely noise
Will Tesla's Q3 2026 vehicle deliveries match or beat its Q2 2026 total of 480,126?

Moved up 80.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+80.5100%Likely noise

Settled (31 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.