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PolymarketGeopoliticsUpdated 4m ago

US strike on Cuba by December 31?

Market probability
16.0%
−0.5 percentage points
over 24 hours16.5% → 16.0%
96 days until the qualification deadline
Latest eligible start date: December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET
The market can resolve after this date while a qualifying period defined in the rules completes.

A repricing with partial backing — read the new probability with some caution.

The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

How credible was the move?

Three separate questions — a move can be genuine while the latest price is still settling. Methodology →

Move validity

Is the move backed by real trading and depth?

Moderate

The pricing has partial support: healthy trading volume and market depth, a tight spread.

Consensus stability

Has the market settled at the new probability?

Stable

The probability has held near its current level over the past several hours.

Contract clarity

Will the rules resolve without ambiguity?

High

The resolution rules are relatively specific, with a named source and a defined deadline.

Recent trade activity$5.2K traded

From the latest trade tape (most recent 200 prints) — a live activity sample, not a lifetime total.

What this market actually measures

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.

View full official resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify. Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.

What could move this market next?

  • The latest eligible start date passesDecember 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET

    After this date, no new qualifying period can begin under the rules.

  • Completion of the qualifying period defined in the rules

    Resolution follows once the defined period finishes without a disqualifying event.

Derived from the contract's own mechanics as of Sep 26, 4:24 PM ET. ProbCast does not list scheduled meetings, announcements, or data releases it cannot verify.

Advanced analysis (experimental)

Research signals — these models are still accumulating the history needed for full validation, and they can disagree with the headline read. Model confidence: low · expected error ±19 pts.

Quote-drivenLegacy movement classifier: watch

What's happening

medium classifier confidence
Quote-driven

A tight, deep, quote-driven book with little executed flow. The price is stable but reflects resting quotes more than active trading.

  • Tight spread on a liquid, calm market
  • Deep, balanced resting book

Read the latest price with caution; conditions make it an unreliable summary right now.

More details — reliability score, dynamics, durability
Reliability score
25Low
Where the price path tends to go next433 observed
  • Choppy / mean-reverting95%
  • Stable consensus2%
  • Thin-liquidity spike1%

Short-term motion of the price line (~1h), distinct from the environment above — not a prediction of the final outcome.

DurabilityHigh· half-life ~14h
PredictabilityElevated irreducibility

Secondary read: leaning toward Thin market.

A read-only classification of the market environment — how much weight the current price deserves as a read of consensus. It describes conditions, never a trade.

Market data

24h volume

$20.6K

Liquidity

$47.3K

Total volume

$5.3M

Category
Geopolitics
Venue
Polymarket
Open interest
—
Spread
2.0 pts
Best bid
15.0%
Best ask
17.0%
7-day range
15.5% – 16.5%
Resolves
Dec 31, 2026
Change (pts)1H0.06H+0.524H-0.57D-0.5

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