Will Tesla's Q3 2026 vehicle deliveries match or beat its Q2 2026 total of 480,126?
Not enough price history for this range yet.
Source: ProbCast snapshots (Manifold)
This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 99.7%.
- Final market price
- 99.7%
- Event deadline
- October 14, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
- Probability 24 hours before event deadline
- 99.7%
- Probability seven days before event deadline
- 99.7%
- Venue status
- resolved
ProbCast Reliability Summary
Will Tesla's Q3 2026 vehicle deliveries match or beat its Q2 2026 total of 480,126? The final Manifold price was 99.7%. This market has resolved. The final Manifold price was 99.7%.
- Market data as of
- October 5, 2026 at 8:03 PM ET
- ProbCast assessment generated
- October 21, 2026 at 4:43 AM ET
- Source
- Manifold
- Event deadline
- October 14, 2026 at 8:00 PM ET
- Market status
- Resolved
- Data updated
- 15d ago
What this market actually measures
Tesla reported 480,126 vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026 (announced July 2, 2026), up 25% year over year and its strongest quarter since Q3 2025. For context, Tesla's all time quarterly delivery record remains 497,099, set in Q3 2025.
This summary shows the opening of the venue's official rules. ProbCast has not yet generated an independent plain-English interpretation for this contract — review the full rules before relying on it.
View full official resolution rules
Tesla reported 480,126 vehicle deliveries for Q2 2026 (announced July 2, 2026), up 25% year over year and its strongest quarter since Q3 2025. For context, Tesla's all time quarterly delivery record remains 497,099, set in Q3 2025. This market resolves YES if Tesla's officially reported total Q3 2026 vehicle deliveries are 480,126 or greater. It resolves NO if that figure is 480,125 or lower. Source: the combined "Total" deliveries number in Tesla's official "Third Quarter 2026 Production, Deliveries and Deployments" press release, as published on Tesla's investor relations site (ir.tesla.com) and filed with the SEC on Form 8-K. All vehicle models combined count toward the total. Production figures and energy storage deployment figures are not used. If Tesla revises the delivery figure in its Q3 2026 quarterly financial update before the resolution deadline, the most recent official figure as of that deadline governs. Resolution deadline: 2026-10-10. Tesla has consistently published its quarterly production and delivery report within the first two days after quarter end (Q3 2025 on October 2, 2025; Q4 2025 on January 2, 2026; Q1 2026 on April 2, 2026; Q2 2026 on July 2, 2026), so the Q3 2026 figure is expected on or around October 1 to 2, 2026. In the unlikely event that Tesla has published no Q3 2026 delivery figure by 2026-10-10, this market resolves N/A.