Daily archive · times in ET · all days
Wednesday, September 30, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved up 10.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 10.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 3.1 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 1.9 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved down 68.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 84.6 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 30.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (45 in 24h)
- SpaceX closes above $170 at end of month?Manifoldno
- Bitcoin price reaches 75k USD at any point before the end of the monthManifoldno
- Bitcoin reaches 90k USD at any point before OctoberManifoldno
- Will the S&P500 be within 1% of all time high at the end of September 2026?Manifoldno
- Will the US and China announce an AI incident notification mechanism at the Trump–Xi summit?Manifoldyes
- Will Romania have a new Government by the end of September?Manifoldno
- Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,300 in September?Polymarketno
- Will the price of ICP hit $5 by Oct1Manifoldno
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.