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Friday, September 25, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved down 1.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 8.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 3.8 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved down 11.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 6.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 18.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (10 in 24h)
- Will the top Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score reach 60 or higher on September 24, 2026?Manifoldno
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?Polymarketno
- Will Tiger finish 8.05 problem set 2 in time?Manifoldyes
- U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by September 30?Polymarketyes
- Will I remember to check this poll in 1 week?Manifoldno
- Will CNN, MS NOW, and Politico all regain White House press access before October 2026?Manifoldyes
- Will a visible “chemtrail” be captured by a UW–Madison rooftop camera between 9 AM and 1 PM CT on September 24th, 2026?Manifoldyes
- Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 24?Polymarketyes
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.