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Tuesday, September 22, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved up 23.3 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 46.1 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 19.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 9.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 5.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved down 38.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 11.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 22.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (30 in 24h)
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?Polymarketno
- Will The Odyssey gross more than Spider-Man: Brand New Day at the domestic box office this weekend (Sept 18–20)?Manifoldno
- BTC Up or Down 1dManifoldyes
- Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in September?Polymarketyes
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?Polymarketno
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?Polymarketno
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?Polymarketno
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?Polymarketno
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.