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Monday, September 7, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 3.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 5.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved up 1.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 32.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 9.6 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (81 in 24h)
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 7?Polymarketyes
- 9984 reaches 6600 by Sep 10?Manifoldyes
- Ethereum price at Sep 7, 2026 at 8pm EDT?Kalshino
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?Polymarketno
- Will Bitcoin be higher a month from now?Manifoldyes
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 5 to September 7, 2026?Polymarketyes
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 5 to September 7, 2026?Polymarketno
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 5 to September 7, 2026?Polymarketno
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.