Israel closes its airspace by September 30?82%15.0Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 5 to September 7, 2026?81%9.0Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 1 to September 8, 2026?23%0.1Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 7?37%2.0Will Democrats win any of these ‘solid Republican’ house races?55%11.9Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?17%2.0Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 7?97%3.5Will California be an independent nation-state by EOY 2035?5%10.1Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?26%1.0Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in September?53%1.0Israel military action against Lebanon on September 9?80%5.0Will a new Smash Bros game be announced in the Nintendo Direct on 9/8?49%11.6Will any US Senate election in 2026 have a winning margin of 1.000% or less?60%10.4Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?52%2.0Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?85%2.0Excluding Susan Collins, will any Republican senate candidate get a higher percent of the vote than trump did in 2024?65%9.7

Daily archive · times in ET · all days

Monday, September 7, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

Moved up 15.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+15.082%Confirmed move
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?

Moved down 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-2.025%Confirmed move
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+2.017%Confirmed move
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?

Moved up 2.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+2.052%Confirmed move
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Moved down 1.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-1.026%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 5 to September 7, 2026?

Moved up 23.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+23.586%Likely noise
Will Democrats win any of these ‘solid Republican’ house races?

Moved up 11.9 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+11.955%Likely noise
Ethereum price at Sep 7, 2026 at 3am EDT?

Moved up 12.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+12.037%Likely noise

Settled (58 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.