ProbCastOdds Reliability
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?68%▲14.0Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?13%▼4.0Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?7%▼3.0Will Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO? 16%▼15.3Will MOUZ Win the BLAST Open Porto 2026?36%▲3.0Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?13%▼3.0Will Spirit Win the BLAST Open Porto 2026?65%▼2.0Will MrBeast's next video get at least 40 million views on day 1?24%▲14.0Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?87%▲2.0Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?5%▼12.5The Greens receive at least 5% and enter the Saxony-Anhalt Landtag71%▲5.1Will a new Smash Bros game be announced in the Nintendo Direct on 9/8?66%▲16.4Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?51%▲0.0Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?82%▼3.5Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1?0%▼6.3Iran full airspace closure by September 30?11%▲2.0

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Sunday, September 6, 2026

The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.

Meaningful moves

Israel closes its airspace by September 30?

Moved up 14.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

+14.068%Confirmed move
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?

Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-3.07%Confirmed move
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

Moved down 4.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-4.082%Confirmed move
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

Moved down 3.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.

-3.013%Confirmed move
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Little 24h change — the price looks settled and reliable.

0.051%Confirmed move

The noise to ignore

Will a new Smash Bros game be announced in the Nintendo Direct on 9/8?

Moved up 16.4 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+16.466%Likely noise
Will MrBeast's next video get at least 40 million views on day 1?

Moved up 15.5 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.

+15.525%Likely noise
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.25% following the Fed's Apr 28, 2027 meeting?

Little 24h change — what little moved looks like thin-market noise.

0.067%Likely noise

Settled (37 in 24h)

ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.