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Friday, August 21, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved up 52.8 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 34.9 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 32.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 19.9 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 20.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved up 10.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 17.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 51.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (336 in 24h)
- Ethereum price at Aug 21, 2026 at 11pm EDT?Kalshino
- Ethereum price at Aug 21, 2026 at 10pm EDT?Kalshino
- Will DeepSeek update DeepSeek v4 before OctoberManifoldyes
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?Polymarketno
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?Polymarketno
- Ethereum price at Aug 21, 2026 at 9pm EDT?Kalshino
- Will an Atlantic hurricane form on or before August 20, 2026?Manifoldno
- Ethereum price at Aug 21, 2026 at 8pm EDT?Kalshino
ProbCast provides prediction-market data and analytics for informational purposes only. Not financial, trading, betting, investment, legal, or tax advice.