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Friday, August 21, 2026
The frozen end-of-day record of what mattered in prediction markets — as ProbCast classified it at the time. For the live view, see today's read.
Meaningful moves
Moved up 29.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 4.2 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved down 13.0 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 17.5 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
Moved up 8.9 pts over 24h — looks like a real move, backed by trading.
The noise to ignore
Moved up 13.8 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved up 85.0 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Moved down 48.2 pts over 24h — looks like thin-market noise, not a real move.
Settled (311 in 24h)
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